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OP21 Predictive value of Milan Ultrasound Criteria in Ulcerative Colitis: A prospective observational cohort study

Allocca, M.(1);Dell’Avalle, C.(2);Furfaro, F.(2);Craviotto, V.(2);Zilli, A.(2);D'Amico, F.(2);Peyrin-Biroulet, L.(3);Fiorino, G.(1);Danese, S.(1)

(1)Humanitas University- Pieve Emanuele, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Milan, Italy;(2)Humanitas Clinical and Research Center – IRCCS Rozzano, IBD Unit, Milan, Italy;(3)University Hospital of Nancy- Université de Lorraine, Department of Gastroenterology, Nancy, Italy

Background

Background

Endoscopic remission is associated with better outcomes in ulcerative colitis (UC). However, colonoscopy (CS) is invasive and poorly tolerated by patients. Recently, we developed and externally validated non-invasive ultrasonography based criteria [Milan ultrasound criteria (MUC)] to assess and grade endoscopic activity in UC. We also confirmed that a MUC score > 6.2 is a valid cut-off to discriminate endoscopic activity, defined by a Mayo endoscopic subscore > 2.
Aim of this study was to assess the predictive role of MUC on disease course in a prospective cohort of UC patients.

Methods

Methods

UC consecutive patients were followed for at least 12 months after performing baseline bowel US. UC-related outcomes, including need of treatment escalation (defined as the need of corticosteroids or change/optimization of immunosuppressants), hospitalization and surgery, were assessed at 1 year by logistic regression analysis, and were analyzed after long term follow-up (5 years) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results

Results

87 UC consecutive patients were included in the study, 31 (36%) were in endoscopic remission (Mayo endoscopic subscore 0-1) and 56 (64%) in endoscopic activity (Mayo endoscopic subscore 2-3). MUC and Mayo endoscopic subscore significantly correlated at baseline (Spearman’s rank correlations [rho]= 0.642; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.499 to 0.751; p < 0.001). The multivariable analysis identified as independent predictors of need of treatment escalation throughout the 12-month period as being: MUC > 6.2 (OR: 5.95, 95% CI: 1.32–26.76, p < 0.020) and a partial Mayo score (PMS) > 2 (OR: 26.88, 95% CI: 5.01–144.07, p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of long-term follow up demonstrated a lower cumulative probability of need for surgery and hospitalization in patients with MUC < 6.2 compared to MUC > 6.2 (Fig. 1A and 1B), as well as in patients with a Mayo endoscopic subscore of < 1 compared to Mayo endoscopic subscore of 2-3 (Fig. 1C and 1D).

Conclusion

Conclusion

MUC is a novel non invasive tool that predicts the course of UC in the short and long term follow-up. 

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